Used Books Blog

Amazon spokesperson Craig Berman tells the New York Times that the rumors about a new Kindle are just that … rumors.

“Don’t believe everything you read,” Mr. Berman said. “There’s a lot of rumor and speculation about the Kindle. One thing I can tell you for sure is that there will be no new version of the Kindle this year. A new version is possible sometime next year at the earliest.”

At the earliest? Boy, if that isn’t a whole lot of wiggle room.

Berman went on to say that he could not confirm that a new version of Kindle would target the lucrative textbook market. Nor would he confirm that a new version would have a color screen. Essentially, all Berman did was put the kibosh on any idea that a new Kindle would arrive for the holiday season.

Scott Morrison of Dow Jones spoke to the Association of American Publishers Director of Higher Education, Stacy Skelly.

(She) acknowledged that e-textbook sales accounted for a tiny fraction of overall sales.

“If the Kindle can make things happen, that would be a welcome change,” she said.

However, other AAP sources said they were not aware of any current talks between Amazon and top textbook publishers concerning a new Kindle device.

The textbook market is perfect for Kindle, but it’s clearly not an easy sell to publishers or students. Publishers don’t want to disrupt a very lucrative market and students need a cheaper solution. The device is still expensive and the digital price doesn’t match up well against a used textbook which you might be able to sell back at the end of the semester.

Not to mention that it could be an all or nothing proposition. Will students want Kindle textbooks if only 3 of the 7 required texts can purchased and downloaded?

The drumbeat from Amazon lately is to downplay the Kindle. Kindle might not be a bust, but Amazon seems hell bent on lowering the bar for success.

Amazon is buying Shelfari according to The Seattle Post-Intelligencer and confirmed by a Shelfari blog post. The purchase comes approximately three weeks after Amazon acquired Abebooks.

The two purchases are interesting for a couple of reasons. First is the continuing attention Amazon is putting into books. For many years Amazon pursued a ‘mall of America’ approach to eTailing. I believe this was a decent strategy during the days of dial-up connections, single tab browsing and high barriers of entry for eTailing.

But the Internet changed.

It’s a whole lot easier to check other sites with high-speed connections and tabbed browsing. The number of competitors has also increased with easier site creation and eCommerce capability. Don’t get me wrong, Amazon is still a juggernaut but these acquisitions (coupled with the Kindle) seem to indicate that Amazon is returning to its bread-and-butter category. Even without these acquisitions they would be leaders in the space, but with Abebooks and Shelfari they’ve made it clear the 900 pound gorilla isn’t sleeping on the job or resting on its laurels.

The Shelfari acquisition is also interesting since Amazon acquired a 40% stake in LibraryThing with the purchase of Abebooks. The two social reading sites don’t exactly play nice together. LibraryThing CEO Tim Spalding has been critical of Shelfari’s marketing tactics and had the following to say after Amazon acquired Abebooks.

I just wish it were closer to April fools. We could blog the launch of Libraryfari. (Don’t worry, that particular turn of events would happen over my dead body.)

Did Amazon want LibraryThing, but couldn’t convince Spalding to sell? Does Amazon divest itself of LibraryThing or simply retain its stake while running its own direct competitor? It’s an interesting and messy situation.

Shelfari could use the help in my opinion. Of the three social reading site, they are the laggards in both traffic and usability. The former is incontrovertible based on statistics from a number of sources including Quantcast.

The latter is obviously subjective. I’ve used all three sites to essentially syndicate my book reviews. For me Shelfari has a very confusing and non-intuitive UI. It’s sizzle over substance.

LibraryThing on the other hand is more substance over sizzle - perhaps too far in the other direction. It has incredible functionality in an almost Craigslist-like style. They’re light on encouraging viral adoption. The principle seems to be, build it and they will come.

Goodreads, the traffic leader, is an interesting hybrid. They have decent UI, encourage viral adoption and allow users to link out from their reviews. The latter makes Goodreads very attractive from an SEO perspective. Authors, publishers and bloggers can develop very relevant links from Goodreads. Even better, they allow you to control the anchor text, another SEO plus.

Why does SEO matter? First, it attracts bloggers and others who are looking for these types of links. These same people come back often and actually want the site to succeed so that the links become even more powerful, thus helping their blog or specific post gain more traction on search engines. The Goodreads open linking policy is a winner.

In the end, what’s most exciting about this news is that we’re talking about books and reading.

The Kindle sales numbers reported by TechCrunch on August 1st have been refuted by Amazon officials says Tim Beuneman, analyst from McAdams Wright Ragen. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports the news came from Beuneman via “an e-mailed note based on meetings with management.”

Amazon officials gave McAdams Wright Ragen analysts the impression that high-end estimates on Kindle sales reported by TechCrunch and a Citigroup analyst are not reasonable.

Amazon managers “told us that the Kindle is definitely selling very well, but they also said the analysts and reporters giving out these extremely high estimates ‘did not run them by company,” Bueneman wrote.

Extremely high? Interesting choice of words.

I was suspect of the numbers when they were reported but took them at face value. Now, it seems I should have listened to the nagging voice in my head that said the numbers were too high. If Kindle sales were that good, Amazon would be on the roof crowing about the news to anyone who would listen.

My post on those first numbers was restrained. Let’s face it, TechCrunch had a number from a source while I simply had a gut feeling, back of the envelope calculations and socio-economic theories. I won’t make that same mistake twice.

Kindle sales aren’t anywhere near this figure based on Beuneman’s statement, coupled with the ’small amount’ of New York Times subscriptions sold on the Kindle, and the fact that Kindle has only been available for sale (by my calculations) just shy of 5 months.

Amazon also reiterated that it would have a student Kindle in the near future. I’ve advocated for a textbook Kindle. The focus on the textbook market is smart, but also an admission of sorts that the Kindle is not finding a mainstream market.

Textbook publishers might not be willing to change their pricing structures, and secondary market players both online and offline, will not want to give up the lucrative used textbook market. I’d feel more confident if Amazon had a positive relationship with publishers, but they don’t.

Finally, will the iPhone 3G problems make consumers more hesitant to try Kindle? I’d surmised that Kindle would benefit from positive experiences with the iPod, but they could face similar negative effects from the latest iPhone launch. Not to mention that little thing called the economy.

It’s all conjecture until Amazon decides to be a bit more transparent.

Software by Rudy Rucker is a gritty, gripping science-fiction novel that explores cyberpunk themes in a retro (Pulp or early Golden Age) format. Software feel like reading an old Amazing Stories or Astounding Science Fiction magazine. The slim volume and direct prose make Software feel slightly and deliciously subversive.

Winner of the inaugural Philip K. Dick award in 1982, Software is a clear influence on many other science fiction writers, most notably Richard K. Morgan and his Takeshi Kovacs trilogy.

Rucker creates a world in which robots have broken Asimov’s laws of robotics and become self-aware and free, taking up residence on the moon. Cobb Anderson, the scientist who set this rebellion in motion, is now an aging ‘pheezer’ in Florida, slowly drinking himself to death.

The story begins almost immediately as Anderson is approached by a representative of the robots, known as boppers, with the offer of immortality. What follows is a terse, action-packed adventure that presents interesting science-fiction concepts beside bits of lurid imagery and unsubtle social commentary.

A central theme of Software is the division of a person into software and hardware. If the software - the mind and memories - survive, does the hardware - human body or robot - matter? Could switching hardware be likened to the regular molting of skin? If the software is part of a greater program - a collection of software - are you no longer an individual? How does the soul fit into the software and hardware division?

Rucker takes all of these issues on, but does so without preaching and, refreshingly, doesn’t seem to take a side. Even his characters are confused and conflicted about their stand on things. And the characters are memorable, though not particularly deep.

Software is populated by two to four main characters; the previously described Cobb Anderson; Sta-Hi an aimless drug addled surfer type; Ralph Numbers, the first bopper to be free; and Mr. Frostee, a ‘big bopper’ who wants to collect the brain tapes of humans and boppers alike, a forerunner of Star Trek’s Borg.

Don’t expect to just sit back and muse about Software. There’s no time with the short chapters, quick dialog and visceral action. After the fact you might feel like a shower and, once in the shower, can begin to evaluate the higher meaning in Software.

I highly recommend Software by Rudy Rucker for anyone who enjoys Philip K. Dick, Richard K. Morgan or Neil Gaiman. However, you may want to avoid Software if you’re not into science fiction, or like your science fiction to be neat and tidy. These robots have no relation to the cute beeping R2D2.

The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed people familiar with the situation, is reporting that Barnes and Noble will not be making a bid to buy Borders Books.

Barnes and Noble’s decision is partly due to some of Borders’ long store leases as well as tight credit markets, which would make it tough to put together enough financing to complete such a deal.

In March, Borders put itself up for sale and disclosed potential liquidity problems. It accepted a more than $42 million loan from one of its largest shareholders. A couple of months later, Barnes & Noble confirmed that it had assembled a senior team to consider a possible acquisition of Borders.

“The process continues and we continue to evaluate alternatives,” Borders spokeswoman Anne Roman said this morning. She declined to comment further.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Borders wants to have any sale of the company done by the end of September.

I’m not particularly surprised by the news even though I thought this might come to fruition. One industry insider told me that Barnes and Noble simply doesn’t pull the trigger on purchases that often. And while that is true, I still thought this represented a clear and simple way to consolidate the brick-and-mortar market and compete against retailers like WalMart and Target.

It seems like Barnes and Noble was interested and considering a purchase. Yet, in the end Barnes and Noble wasn’t willing to take on the additional debt run up by Borders nor be constrained by their long leases. If the economic climate were better, Barnes and Noble may have been more bold, but the economy continues to struggle and inflation looms. Discretionary income is going down and books faces an uphill battle in that type of environment.

Borders is now in a strange position. Their most favored suitor has spurned them and no one else seems a likely candidate. Very few competitors are big enough to take on Borders. And no, Amazon is not a possibility. Not a chance. That leaves a financial suitor, someone who believes they can turn Borders around and turn it into a profit center. This seems like a long shot.

Perhaps Barnes and Noble is waiting for a more catastrophic demise of Borders. One in which Barnes and Noble can simply cherry-pick the stores they want, sticking a proverbial thumbnail in the bottom of the chocolate looking for caramel.

Fieldwork by Mischa Berlinski is a well-crafted, absorbing novel that fuses travel, anthropology and mystery. In many respects it feels a bit like a Paul Theroux travelogue, albeit Berlinski is far kinder to most of his subjects. And while this is a work of fiction, the main character certainly bears a strong resemblance to the author in more than just name.

How do I know this? I worked with Mischa briefly in 2001. Though our ‘relationship’ can be, at best, characterized as a casual acquaintance, Mischa is hard to forget. His speech has a particular cadence, a roller coaster of speed from slow drawls to excited animation and his wit, usually dry and mellow, can also reach an acid exasperation at times. Fieldwork captures the essence of Mischa quite well, giving great life to the novel.

Fieldwork follows Mischa, a rather aimless young man, who has tagged along with his girlfriend to Thailand. Berlinski’s description of Thailand is fantastic, with particular emphasis on colors, flowers and smells. Amid the odd writing assignments Mischa learns about the story of Martiya van der Leun, a Dutch Malaysian anthropologist who murdered a Christian missionary. At first intrigued, and then obsessed, Mischa wants to learn more about Martiya’s life and how she wound up dying in a Thai prison. Fieldwork is not a who-dunnit but is, instead, a why-dunnit.

Berlinski uncovers the life history of Martiya and her victim, David Walker, through various interviews and correspondences with relatives and friends of both. It is a tricky and interesting way to breath life into the characters while at the same time slowly building the plot of the murder mystery. In retrospect, it’s a lot like an episode of Without a Trace, which I happen to enjoy.

Without being overt, Berlinski shows that the missionary and anthropologist are alike in one central way, they each embark on a type of fieldwork. The fieldwork is not easy, and both must be passionate about their cause, whether it is to document and understand or convert and save.

Following these passionate folks, the novel moves from the small Dyalo village of Dan Loi to Berkeley to China to the Lot, a nomadic village of sorts composed of those following the Grateful Dead. And the present day interludes reveal that Mischa himself has embarked on a type of fieldwork.

Don’t let the themes of Fieldwork scare you off. I’m not really the religious type nor would I normally sit down to read an anthropological study. Yet, Berlinski makes these things interesting, stripping away stereotypes and preconceived notions and replacing them with engaging and well-rounded characters. The latter, presenting the balanced portrait of these characters - the good and … not so good - ensures that Fieldwork doesn’t become stale.

Though not brimming with hilarity, there are a number of wry comic moments and odd, dry wit.

… they ascribed all ill fortune to witchcraft, from the most trivial, a stubbed toe, to the most grave, a sulky wife or death.

Read the quote again if you haven’t chuckled the first time.

I can understand why Fieldwork is a finalist for the prestigious National Book Award. It is well researched, well written and, like Mischa, hard to forget.

TechCrunch recently reported that “240,000 Kindles have been shipped since November, according to a source close to Amazon with direct knowledge of the numbers.” It’s not official, but it’s better than nothing. As a number 240,000 isn’t bad, but it’s tough to tell if it’s good either.

The Kindle launched in late November of 2007 and in five and a half hours sold out, finally going back on sale in late April. So we’re looking at pent up demand and holiday shopping for the launch and then a three month window of more traditional sales. The real viability of Kindle is in traditional sales volume. Therefore, the distribution of that 240,000 between these months is critical.

Did they sell 100,000 that first day and then 140,000 over the next three months? Or was it 30,000 the first day and then 210,000 over the next three months? What is the unit sales trend between May, June and July? Is it accelerating or decreasing? Answers to these questions would help us put the 240,000 figure into proper context.

Again, the 240,000 figure isn’t bad, yet should we really be surprised?

The iPod in particular and hand held devices in general all helped pave the way for a greater acceptance of Kindle. It had the wind at its back, allowing it to tap the innovator and early adopter market with relative ease. So, in some ways you might expect that Kindle should have a better adoption curve. However, let’s face it, books and reading don’t (sadly) have the same market potential as music.

Let’s also figure in the high promotion Amazon has and continues to put behind Kindle. It is regularly featured on the Amazon home page. As a site, Amazon gets approximately 50 million unique visitors a month. Even if only a third see the home page, this means 15+ million people are getting the Kindle pitch each month via the website. Never mind the emails (of which I’ve received two in the last week.)

Assume the best case scenario of 210,000 sold in the three month traditional window with no deceleration. This means 70,000 Kindles sold each month from the 15 million views. The result is a nearly half percent conversion rate. This isn’t half bad in my opinion.

However, the numbers go sideways in a hurry if you choose to use the 50 million number instead of 15 million, or add in additional promotion and reach via affiliates. Then there’s the distribution of the 240,000. If only 140,000 were sold in those three months, then the 70,000 figure drops precipitously.

So, is 240,000 a good number? Time (and disclosure) will tell.

Amazon has agreed to buy Abebooks.

According to numerous reports this morning, Amazon will acquire Abebooks. No terms have been disclosed. The deal will close by the end of the year and Abebooks will remain a stand-alone unit. This is very big news in the bookselling world.

I spent three years at Alibris and became convinced that Amazon would purchase ABE or Alibris. Lowball offers aside, things never seems to get anywhere on that front.

In that time ABE shed it’s business partnerships with Amazon and Barnes & Noble, and instead pursued a vertical integration strategy. They bought Fillz, a company that provided inventory and order management software for booksellers; Bookfinder.com, the leading price comparison engine in the vertical; a 40% stake in LibraryThing, the leading social reading site; and Chrislands, which creates online storefronts for booksellers. ABE also has a bigger international footprint.

I often thought that Amazon may have been waiting for ABE or Alibris to fall apart. In fact, I think that is what they were doing. Unfortunately for them, each player found a niche and persisted. Now, finally, they’ve decided to turn their attention back to books. Solidifying their core business is a smart move in my opinion.

Alibris, on the other hand, continued to build business partnerships with Barnes & Noble, Borders, eBay, Chapters and Blackwell UK. Not to mention their own Sparks, NV warehouse which allows them to service the Library market with greater ease.

Essentially, Alibris gives many Amazon competitors the ability to offer a marketplace of used books without building substantial infrastructure. Most recently, Alibris now powers the Borders.com used book marketplace. This is more notable because Borders is a former Amazon partner.

So what happens now?

Perhaps nothing, but … perhaps this is the start of the endgame. Barnes & Noble could see this move and want to counter. I’ve already theorized that Barnes & Noble might purchase Borders. I still think this makes sense. However, why not purchase Alibris as well? Barnes & Noble would roll up the brick and mortar space, owning it by a wide margin, and have a strong competing stake in the secondary market.

Independent booksellers may be unsettled by this consolidation and will likely keep an eye on commission and fee schedules over the course of the next year.

Thanks to Duncan Riley at the Inquistr who brought this news to my attention via FriendFeed.